Democrats currently hold an extraordinarily narrow 220-211 seat majority in the House of Representatives with four seats vacant two Democratic seats and two Republican seats. To learn more about congressional non-voting members in the U.S. House of Representatives, click here. Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) died on August 3, 2022. By Leke Baiyewu. Republicans are enthusiastic about their chances of taking over the U.S. House of Representatives in the midterm elections of 2022. Governor Charlie Baker (R) signed a bill into law that rescheduled the state's primary election from September 20, 2022, to September 6, 2022. Click on the to see the other two. The district runs from just . Analysis>. The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) reported the following fundraising amounts for the 2021-22 election cycle: Redistricting is the process of drawing new congressional and state legislative district boundaries. The most vulnerable GOP incumbent in the country might be Rep. Mike Garcia, whose district north of Los Angeles voted for President Joe Biden by 13 points. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. We'll always be transparent about why we're making a certain rating. Full election results. Find out how all this works in our. For more information about the redistricting process in those states where multiple U.S. House incumbents ran in the same district, see: Ballotpedia's Annual Congressional Competitiveness report for 2022 includes information on the number of elections featuring candidates from both major parties, the number of open seats, and more. The closest U.S. House race in 2022 was in Colorado's 3rd Congressional District, where Lauren Boebert (R) defeated Adam Frisch (D) by a margin of 0.17%, or 546 votes out of more than 300,000 cast. The average seat loss has been almost 27 seats in the House and between three and four seats in the Senate. Given the standard error of about 10 seats for the House forecast and three seats for the Senate model, however, the safest conclusion would be that the balance of power in both chambers would probably be very close. Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin's battleground seat got slightly easier in redistricting, but the GOP thinks it can oust her with a national tailwind. If it's in the news, it's in our polls. Republicans needed to gain a net of five districts to win a majority in the chamber. House Democrats' most iconoclastic member, Rep. Jared Golden, is betting his brand of centrism can overcome a challenging political environment. If you're looking to stake $100 at -350, you will make a $28.57 profit if the elephant prevails. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? [58] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of June 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. These boundaries will be in effect through 2022. This article is reprinted from Sabato's Crystal Ball. -- That said, there are also a lot of contradictory signs. Operations: Meghann Olshefski Mandy Morris Kelly Rindfleisch Current House: 221 Democrats | 212 Republicans | 2 Vacancies. * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous experience and endorsements. A special election for the seat was held concurrently with the general election on November 8. U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016 are listed in the table below. Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R), in response to a federal court order, directed that the primary for state legislative offices be held on August 2, 2022. Note: Ballotpedia does not consider these seats to be open when calculating congressional competitiveness data. Clickme! Redistricting has no bearing on Senate elections, and the 2022 Senate map appears favorable for Democrats. 2022 Kentucky General Election: Live updates and the latest news from polls in Louisville Rae Johnson, Caleb Stultz, Ana Roco lvarez Brez and Stephanie Kuzydym, Louisville Courier Journal. A federal district court judge affirmed the decision of a state-level judge to postpone the primaries for congressional and state senate offices to August 23, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for June 28, 2022). Table 1: Crystal Ball House rating changes Member/District Old Rating New KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- To get a flavor of the 2022 ad messages from both sides, we watched nearly 350 campaign ads that came out in the second half of September. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Joe Kent's margin of victory over Herrera Beutler in the primary. As a result of the elections, Republicans gained a 222-213 majority. Lucca brings that KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- As we approach Election Day, the basic fundamentals of this midterm may be reasserting themselves, to the benefit of Republicans. Republicans currently hold 20 of the 34 seats at stake in 2022. "[63][64][65], The data in the report is compiled by POLIDATA, a political data analysis company, with assistance from National Journal and The Cook Political Report. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var e in a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.getElementById("datawrapper-chart-"+e)||document.querySelector("iframe[src*='"+e+"']");if(t)(t.style.height=a.data["datawrapper-height"][e]+"px")}})}(); The following table lists incumbents defeated in the 2022 general election for U.S. 51 +1. The following table shows the number of U.S. House incumbents defeated in each election cycle from 2000 to 2022, by party. This chart lists each district that the DCCC announced it would target in 2022. 2024 House Interactive Map 2024 Pundit Forecasts 2022 House Polls 2022 House Simulation View Your 2022 District 2022 House Retirements 2022 House Election Results. Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms. We default to the Deluxe . Elections to the U.S. House were held on November 8, 2022. November 1:AK-AL, AZ-04, KS-03, NH-01, PA-17 move from Toss-up to Leans D; CA-27, CO-08, NC-13, NV-03, NY-19, OR-05, VA-02 Toss-up to Leans R; CA-40 Safe to Likely R; CA-47, CT-05, NY-04, VA-7, WA-08 Leans D to Toss-up; CT-03 Likely to Safe D; NE-02 Likely to Leans R. The final 2022 House ratings from Elections Daily, a site that provides nonpartisan election coverage. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. Hover over or click a district to see the presidential vote counts. In Abramowitz's model, he sets that at 222 Democratic House seats (out of 435) and 14 Senate seats (out of 34 up in 2022). The table below includes election results for districts that were open at the time the state held its congressional primary. As a result of the 2022 elections, Democrats won 30 of those seats, and Republicans won 38. -- A modified version of the model that also incorporates expert analysis also suggests that Republicans are favored in both chambers, but 465 Crestwood DriveP.O. The map below shows how each 2022 U.S. House district would have voted in the 2020 presidential election. [66][67], Cook's 2022 PVI report included the following congressional district statistics following the 2020 election cycle:[68]. 2022 U.S. House Elections with multiple incumbents. Lawmakers in the Colorado House of Representatives on Monday defeated a Republican proposal for a sweeping overhaul of state election laws backed by conspiracy theorists who baselessly allege that . Republicans 29 seats not up for election. There were 30 U.S. House Republican battleground primaries in 2022. Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) called for the state legislative primary to be held on August 2, 2022 (the primary was originally scheduled for May 3, 2022). Currently, the Democrats hold just a 219-211 lead in the House . These numbers do not include the U.S. territories, Washington D.C., or Louisiana. The following table displays members listed as "On the Radar" in the NRCC's Young Guns program for the 2022 election cycle. [40][41], On February 10, 2021, the NRCC released an initial list of 47 House Democrats whose districts it would target in the 2022 elections. Views expressed in this column are those of the author, not those of Rasmussen Reports. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. Nov. 6, 2022 Georgia's 2nd District Previous rating: Likely Democratic Democratic Rep. Sanford Bishop is still favored for reelection, but GOP Gov. Republicans' South Texas surge could net them this congressional seat. The original filing deadline was set for March 8, 2022. For more information on our methodology, click here: In addition to the competitiveness data above, a race may be particularly compelling or meaningful to the balance of power in governments for other reasons. Heading into the election, Democrats had a 220-212 majority. Democratic Rep. Abigail Spanberger is seeking a third term in a district President Joe Biden won by 6 points in 2020 but now-Gov. A seat created as a result of a state gaining a new congressional district due to apportionment is also considered open if no incumbent is running in it. Election Day arrived with 217 seats in the Solid, Likely or Lean Republican category putting Republicans only two seats away from the majority, according to the forecast. Less clear is what the race will do to his . This is not surprising given the much smaller number of Senate seats contested in each election and the larger potential impact of local factors such as candidate quality and fundraising. The following map shows each state with a Republican battleground primary for U.S. House in 2022. Check out our, There is no secret sauce. . Use this map to create and share your own 2022 House Election forecast. According to Politico, the PVI is designed to "provide a quick overall assessment of generic partisan strength in a congressional district. If an incumbent filed to run in a different district than the one they currently represent, Ballotpedia considers the seat they currently represent as open, as long as no incumbent from another district is running in it. In the sections below, you will find: Click here for our Election Day coverage of the November 8, 2022, U.S. House election results. The party gained a net of nine districts. Read the analysis ($). The House model is highly accurate, explaining over 80% of the variance in seat swing. [61] Five states (Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina, and Oregon) gained one seat each, and Texas gained two seats. However, our forecast does not take into account the specific seats that are on the ballot in 2022, only the numbers of Democratic and Republican seats. Michael F.Q. The seat of the Resident Commissioner of Puerto Rico, whose functions are similar to the delegates, was not up for election this year. Current House. Last updated: Feb. 3, 2023 11:57 a.m. PST 218 for majority 213 DEMS GOP. Ellis said that these districts, where the incumbent won re-election with less than 52 percent of the vote, could be "some of the most competitive early targets in the 2022 elections. You can tune in here; if you cannot make it, we will KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE -- We now rate 218 House seats -- the magic number for winning a majority -- as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. An even, 50-50 split of the Toss Up districts would translate to a 17-seat Republican gain. Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. The following map displays the 2022 House battlegrounds shaded by the incumbent's or most recent incumbent's political affiliation. Nightly polling on politics, business and lifestyle topics provides the content to update the Rasmussen Reports web site many times each day. In 2018, Democrats won 15 of POLITICOs 22 Toss Up contests in their 40-seat wave election. The closer fit of the data points to the prediction line in the House data is very clear from these figures. These battleground races were selected using the following criteria. All 435 districts were up for election. [39] Also included is each district's 2022 partisan lean as of July 2022 from The Cook Political Report and FiveThirtyEight. The Vanguard program exists to provide support to candidates running in Republican-leaning open seats. that guide every prediction he makes. A recent Quinnipiac poll gave Democrats a nine-point lead on the generic ballot. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r
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